The Spotted Lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) is an invasive plant-hopper pest native to parts of China, first introduced to the United States in Berks County, PA, in 2014. According to the NYSIPM, egg masses were hypothesized to have arrived in stone shipments in 2012. Since its introduction, there have been Spotted Lanternfly reports in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
Scheibmeir and Malaiya utilized a novel approach to model the spread of the Spotted Lanternfly in the United States: Social-media-driven Digital Twin. Most previous literature on social media has commented on its effects on humans and human-related systems. However, this paper utilizes Twitter to feed a digital twin of the propagation of the Spotted Lanternfly, in order to create a predictive model of their spread. Overall, the authors managed to collect 11,723 tweets mentioning Spotted Lanternflies posted between September and December of 2021.
Twitter mentions were positively correlated with lanternfly activity
A time series analysis revealed that Twitter activity correlated with the expected peak of adult Spotted Lanternfly activity (early to mid-September).
Moreover, the authors also evaluated the emotions associated with each post. They found that the associated emotions vary through time, corresponding to studies of social-media-based social movements. In the first stage, “consolidation”, the discussion and its language reflect positive emotions of solidarity. This is reflected by the initial increase of ‘trust’ and ‘positive’ sentiments. The second stage, “expansion”, is characterized by capitalizing on the previous solidarity within the community, leading to recruitment and coordination. However, the subsequent decline in ‘positive’ and ‘trust’, and the increase in ‘anticipation’, ‘anger’, ‘disgust’, and ‘negativity’ disagree with the theoretical framework. The final stage, “intensification,” includes conflict and propagation. In a secondary disagreement with the typical social protest framework, ‘joy’, ‘trust’, and ‘positive’ sentiments were on the rise.
Overall, the digital-twin model of the Spotted Lanternfly predicted that the insect will be sighted in Missouri and Minnesota in 2022.
Future research directions
This paper is likely the first to utilize the digital-twin model to illustrate the spread of an invasive species. The authors conclude that this study may help researchers replicate and expand upon the methods of their model. Additionally, the public can utilize these predictions to mobilize preventative pest management. However, this study is limited by its use of only one social media platform. The restricted timeline and geographic scope also may have limited the potential of their results. Thus, Scheibmeir and Malaiya recommend continued research into this topic during future seasons of Spotted Lanternfly activity.
Read the study
Scheibmeir, J., & Malaiya, Y. (2022). A Social Media-driven Digital Twin of an Invasive Species.
Featured image: ©botanygirl, some rights reserved (CC-BY)
Biology (ecology concentration) and Environmental studies Double Major
Wildlife Photographer
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